Technology - Infrastructure

3 Stocks Powering Data Center Growth: The Overlooked AI Infrastructure Play

Data Center & AI Infrastructure
October 22, 2025 15 min read Intermediate
Market Size
$350B
Power Demand
2× by 2028
Key Players
EQIX / DLR
Growth Rate
24% CAGR

Everyone knows the winners of the AI boom by now. Nvidia for the GPU. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google for the cloud. Utilities for the power surge. Fully priced, widely owned, and talked about on every earnings call and podcast from here to Omaha. But here's what most portfolios are missing: the enormous mid-layer of the data center supply chain - the companies actually building the physical and digital plumbing that makes AI compute work in the real world. Data centers sit at the core of AI's physical infrastructure, with 25.6% annual growth projected through 2034, and capital spending on data center construction is expected to surpass investment in traditional office buildings in 2025. First time ever. Three stocks - scored across momentum, valuation, earnings revisions, profitability, and analyst sentiment - look particularly well-positioned for what comes next: Applied Digital (APLD), Pure Storage (PSTG), and Johnson Controls (JCI).

$405B+ Estimated Hyperscaler AI Infrastructure CapEx in 2025 - Up 62% Year-on-Year
+43% Worldwide Data Center CapEx Growth in Q2 2025 vs. Prior Year (Dell'Oro Group)
25.6% Projected Annual Growth Rate for Data Center Infrastructure Through 2034
175% Goldman Sachs Projected Rise in Global Data Center Power Demand by 2030 vs. 2023

The Scale of the AI Data Center Build-Out in 2025

The numbers in this space move so fast they're almost impossible to keep in context. At the start of 2025, analysts were penciling in roughly $280 billion in hyperscaler capex for the year. Seemed like a lot. By Q3 2025, that estimate had blown past $405 billion - 62% year-on-year growth and nearly triple what was spent in 2023. Amazon alone raised its full-year 2025 capex guidance to $125 billion, up 51% from 2024, chewing through more than 88% of its projected operating cash flow. Just to build data centers. Microsoft spent $34.9 billion in Q3 2025 alone - a 75% jump from the same quarter the prior year. Google lifted its full-year forecast by $10 billion to approximately $85 billion. And Meta, which spent $65 billion in 2025, has flagged that annual capex could approach $100 billion by 2026.

2025 Estimated AI & Data Center CapEx - Major Hyperscalers

Amazon (AWS) 🟠
~$125B
Microsoft 🔵
~$80B
Alphabet (Google) 🟢
~$85B
Meta 🔵
~$65B
Oracle + Others 🟣
~$50B+

Sources: Company earnings guidance and analyst synthesis (CreditSights, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs). Figures represent full-year 2025 capital expenditure estimates as of Q3 2025. Not all capex is data centre-specific - approximately 75% of aggregate hyperscaler spend is tied directly to AI infrastructure.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that global data center power demand will grow 175% between 2023 and 2030. To put that in perspective, it is the equivalent of adding another top-10 power-consuming country to global electricity grids. That kind of demand projection drives an estimated $1.15 trillion in hyperscaler capex between 2025 and 2027 alone - more than double the $477 billion spent across 2022 through 2024. The Dell'Oro Group projects worldwide data center capex will reach $1.2 trillion cumulatively by 2029. And the acceleration is already visible in the data: Q2 2025 worldwide data center capex grew 43% year-on-year, with accelerated server spending up 76% driven by the NVIDIA Blackwell platform ramp.

AI Rack Power Density - How Compute Demands Have Changed

Traditional server rack (pre-AI)
5–15 kW
AI rack (current standard)
20–40 kW
High-density AI rack (H100/H200)
50–80 kW
Blackwell GB200 NVL72 rack
~120 kW

AI rack power density has grown 8–24x vs. traditional server racks. This drives demand for advanced cooling, high-capacity power distribution, and sophisticated thermal management - the core markets for Vertiv, Eaton, and JCI.

The Data Center Supply Chain: Where Value Is Created

Not all data center plays are created equal. The investment cycle creates value across several distinct supply chain layers, and each one carries different risk profiles, valuation dynamics, and competitive moats. Knowing which layer a company occupies - and what that means for its earnings durability - is really the first question any investor should be asking.

Hyperscalers (Demand Drivers)

  • Amazon AWS
  • Microsoft Azure
  • Google Cloud
  • Meta AI Infrastructure

The demand side. They commission data centers, lease capacity, and call the shots for the entire supply chain. Most investors already own these through broad tech indices whether they realise it or not.

Chips & Compute (Most Owned)

  • Nvidia (GPUs)
  • AMD (GPUs, CPUs)
  • Broadcom (ASICs, networking)
  • TSMC (fabrication)

The glamour names. Nvidia trades at premium valuations reflecting years of expected growth already baked into the price. Everyone and their grandmother owns these.

Power & Cooling (Rapidly Growing)

  • Vertiv (VRT)
  • Eaton (ETN)
  • nVent Electric (NVT)
  • Johnson Controls (JCI) ★

UPS systems, PDUs, liquid cooling, thermal management - the stuff every data center needs no matter which GPU generation ships next. Non-negotiable spend.

Data Center REITs (Income Layer)

  • Equinix (EQIX)
  • Digital Realty (DLR)
  • Iron Mountain (IRM)
  • Applied Digital (APLD) ★

The landlords. They build, own, and operate the physical facilities - collecting recurring lease revenue from hyperscalers and co-location tenants. Boring until you see the rent escalators.

Storage & Memory (Often Overlooked)

  • Micron Technology (MU)
  • Western Digital (WDC)
  • Seagate (STX)
  • Pure Storage (PSTG) ★

High-performance flash and memory that feeds AI training clusters. You can't de-bottleneck compute without the right storage infrastructure underneath it - and most investors haven't figured that out yet.

3 Quantitatively Strong Data Center Stocks - The Overlooked Plays

Hyperscalers, chip companies, and the big utilities have soaked up most of the capital and attention since this AI boom kicked off. Fair enough - they're obvious plays. But key upstream subsectors of the data center supply chain? Still under-appreciated. I've run these through momentum, valuation discipline, earnings revision trends, profitability quality, and analyst sentiment screens, and three companies stand out as carrying Quant Strong Buy characteristics as of October 2025. All three serve the data center ecosystem in roles that are non-discretionary, recurring, and structurally growing.

How These Three Compare to the Broader Data Center Universe

Company Ticker Segment AI Data Center Role Key Risk Quant Signal
Applied Digital APLD Purpose-Built DC Operator Builds & operates AI-ready facilities; long-term leases with hyperscalers Construction execution; customer concentration Strong Buy
Pure Storage PSTG Enterprise Flash Storage High-throughput storage feeding AI GPU clusters; Evergreen subscription model Competition from commodity flash; valuation multiple Strong Buy
Johnson Controls JCI Building Automation / Cooling Liquid & air cooling systems; thermal management for high-density AI racks Non-DC business dilutes pure-play exposure; cyclicality Strong Buy
Vertiv Holdings VRT Power & Cooling Infrastructure UPS, PDUs, thermal management - comprehensive DC power infrastructure Valuation: ~46x forward earnings; supply chain capacity Neutral / Hold
Eaton Corporation ETN Electrical Power Management 800V DC architecture with NVIDIA; busbar technology; high-density PDUs Broad industrial exposure; slower data center re-rating vs. VRT Buy
Equinix EQIX Colocation REIT Global interconnection network; 10% EBITDA growth Q3 2025; strong bookings Premium REIT valuation; limits growth multiple expansion Neutral
Digital Realty DLR Hyperscale DC REIT AI-oriented lease focus; $919M backlog; 300+ data centers globally Capital-intensive; leverage rising with DC construction expansion Buy

The Data Center Investment Acceleration: 2024–2025 Timeline

Early 2025

The Stargate Announcement - $500B AI Infrastructure Commitment

President Trump announced the Stargate Project - a joint venture between SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle committing $500 billion in AI infrastructure investment over four years, with an initial $100 billion to be deployed immediately. The announcement set the tone for the scale of AI infrastructure ambition in 2025 and triggered a significant re-rating of data center-adjacent companies.

Q1–Q2 2025

Hyperscaler CapEx Guidance Revisions Begin Exceeding Analyst Estimates

In a pattern that repeated every quarter, hyperscaler companies announced capital expenditure plans well above analyst forecasts. Total 2025 AI infrastructure spend estimates were repeatedly revised upward - from $250B at year-start to $365B entering Q3, ultimately tracking above $405B. Dell'Oro Group reported 43% global data center capex growth in Q2, with accelerated server spending up 76% driven by the NVIDIA Blackwell platform ramp-up.

Q3 2025

Power and Cooling Constraints Become a Market Narrative

As the NVIDIA Blackwell GB200 NVL72 rack - drawing approximately 120 kilowatts - began shipping at scale, the data center industry's power and cooling challenge moved from a theoretical concern to a practical constraint on how quickly hyperscalers could deploy AI compute. Goldman Sachs published research projecting data center power demand would grow 175% between 2023 and 2030, equivalent to adding an entire large country's electricity consumption to global grids. This narrative directly benefited Vertiv, Eaton, Johnson Controls, and cooling specialists.

October 2025

Data Center Investment Exceeds Traditional Office Buildings

For the first time in history, annual investment in data center construction is projected to exceed investment in traditional office buildings in the United States - a structural shift in how capital is being allocated to the built environment. This milestone, combined with 25.6% annual growth projected through 2034, underscores the durability of the data center investment cycle as an investment theme, not a short-term trade.

What to Watch: Risk Factors and Investment Framework

The data center investment thesis is structurally compelling, but it is not without risk. The primary concern that has periodically rattled this sector - exemplified by the January 2025 DeepSeek-driven sell-off that wiped approximately $1 trillion from global equity markets in a single session - is that more efficient AI models could reduce the compute intensity required to deliver equivalent AI output, thereby reducing demand for AI hardware and, by extension, the infrastructure that houses it. This risk is real but overstated as a structural threat: even if individual AI models require less compute per inference, the breadth and scale of AI application deployment is expanding rapidly enough that aggregate data center demand continues to grow even with improved efficiency.

Investor Framework: How to Evaluate Data Center Infrastructure Companies

  • Recurring vs. transactional revenue: Companies with subscription, maintenance, or long-term lease revenue (Pure Storage's Evergreen subscriptions, Applied Digital's contracted facility leases, JCI's service contracts) offer superior earnings visibility compared to companies dependent on one-time equipment sales cycles
  • Power access as a competitive moat: In 2025, the binding constraint on data center expansion is not capital or GPUs - it is access to power. Companies that have secured long-term power agreements or have established relationships with utilities in power-surplus markets are structurally advantaged. Applied Digital's strategic focus on this moat is its most durable competitive advantage
  • Valuation relative to growth: Vertiv's well-deserved premium (~46x forward earnings) leaves less room for upside surprise. Applied Digital, Pure Storage, and Johnson Controls offer quantitatively better risk-reward profiles at their respective valuations relative to their data center growth exposure, which is why they score higher on quantitative factor frameworks
  • The cooling and power delivery bottleneck: Every GPU must be cooled and powered. This demand is non-discretionary and scales directly with the number of GPUs deployed - making power infrastructure and thermal management companies structurally benefiting from the entire AI compute buildout rather than from any single technology or product cycle
  • Debt financing risk at the hyperscaler level: Meta and Oracle issued $75 billion in bonds and loans in September–October 2025 alone to fund AI data center construction. The scale of AI infrastructure debt financing is significant and introduces macro credit risk - if credit conditions tighten materially, capex plans could be revised downward faster than current consensus expects
  • Geographic diversification of data center construction: Data center construction is increasingly spreading beyond traditional hubs (Northern Virginia, Silicon Valley, Dublin) toward Sunbelt states, Midwest locations, and international sovereign AI projects - this broadens the addressable market for US-based data center infrastructure companies

Key Takeaways

  • Hyperscalers are tracking above $405 billion in AI infrastructure capital expenditure in 2025 - up 62% year-on-year and nearly triple 2023 levels - with Amazon alone guiding to $125 billion for the full year
  • Data center investment is projected to exceed traditional office building investment in the US in 2025 for the first time, with 25.6% annual growth forecast through 2034 and global data center capex projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2029
  • While chip stocks and utilities have absorbed the bulk of investor attention, key upstream data center subsectors - purpose-built facility operators, enterprise flash storage, and building automation / cooling infrastructure - remain quantitatively attractive and under-represented in most AI investment portfolios
  • Applied Digital (APLD) is a purpose-built AI data center operator whose competitive moat is access to power in underserved geographies and facilities purpose-engineered for extreme GPU rack density - qualities that cannot be quickly replicated by traditional colocation providers or hyperscalers building their own capacity
  • Pure Storage (PSTG) addresses the frequently overlooked storage bottleneck in AI training: GPU clusters are only as productive as the speed at which data can be fed into them, and Pure Storage's FlashBlade arrays are specifically designed to eliminate storage as the constraint in large-scale AI training runs
  • Johnson Controls (JCI) brings 140 years of building infrastructure expertise to the data center cooling crisis - a crisis created by AI rack power density escalating from 5–15 kW (traditional) to 50–120 kW (Blackwell-era AI) - and arrives at this growth story at a more attractive valuation than pure-play cooling peers like Vertiv
  • Goldman Sachs projects global data center power demand will grow 175% between 2023 and 2030 - the equivalent of adding a top-10 power-consuming nation to global electricity grids - making power delivery and thermal management non-discretionary growth markets for the remainder of this decade
  • The primary risk to the data center thesis is AI model efficiency improvement (exemplified by DeepSeek's January 2025 shock) reducing per-model compute requirements - however, expanding AI application breadth has historically absorbed these efficiency gains rather than reducing aggregate demand
  • Recurring revenue models (subscriptions, maintenance contracts, long-term leases) are the key differentiator between high-quality and lower-quality data center infrastructure investments - companies with contracted, recurring revenue streams offer superior earnings visibility during capex cycle inflections
  • The data center infrastructure buildout is structurally recurring, not a one-time boom: each new AI architecture generation (Blackwell, then the inevitable successor) requires re-architecting power, cooling, networking, and memory bandwidth - making infrastructure investment a durable multi-year theme rather than a trade timed to a single chip cycle

Sources: Dell'Oro Group Data Center IT Capex Quarterly Report (Q2 2025); Goldman Sachs Research - "Data Center Power Demand: The 6 Ps Driving Growth" (October 2025); CreditSights Technology Hyperscaler CapEx Analysis (2025); Company earnings guidance - Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta (Q3 2025).

Bellwether Research, Research Team, October 22, 2025