Everyone knows the winners of the AI boom by now. Nvidia for the GPU. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google for the cloud. Utilities for the power surge. Fully priced, widely owned, and talked about on every earnings call and podcast from here to Omaha. But here's what most portfolios are missing: the enormous mid-layer of the data center supply chain - the companies actually building the physical and digital plumbing that makes AI compute work in the real world. Data centers sit at the core of AI's physical infrastructure, with 25.6% annual growth projected through 2034, and capital spending on data center construction is expected to surpass investment in traditional office buildings in 2025. First time ever. Three stocks - scored across momentum, valuation, earnings revisions, profitability, and analyst sentiment - look particularly well-positioned for what comes next: Applied Digital (APLD), Pure Storage (PSTG), and Johnson Controls (JCI).
The Scale of the AI Data Center Build-Out in 2025
The numbers in this space move so fast they're almost impossible to keep in context. At the start of 2025, analysts were penciling in roughly $280 billion in hyperscaler capex for the year. Seemed like a lot. By Q3 2025, that estimate had blown past $405 billion - 62% year-on-year growth and nearly triple what was spent in 2023. Amazon alone raised its full-year 2025 capex guidance to $125 billion, up 51% from 2024, chewing through more than 88% of its projected operating cash flow. Just to build data centers. Microsoft spent $34.9 billion in Q3 2025 alone - a 75% jump from the same quarter the prior year. Google lifted its full-year forecast by $10 billion to approximately $85 billion. And Meta, which spent $65 billion in 2025, has flagged that annual capex could approach $100 billion by 2026.
2025 Estimated AI & Data Center CapEx - Major Hyperscalers
Sources: Company earnings guidance and analyst synthesis (CreditSights, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs). Figures represent full-year 2025 capital expenditure estimates as of Q3 2025. Not all capex is data centre-specific - approximately 75% of aggregate hyperscaler spend is tied directly to AI infrastructure.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that global data center power demand will grow 175% between 2023 and 2030. To put that in perspective, it is the equivalent of adding another top-10 power-consuming country to global electricity grids. That kind of demand projection drives an estimated $1.15 trillion in hyperscaler capex between 2025 and 2027 alone - more than double the $477 billion spent across 2022 through 2024. The Dell'Oro Group projects worldwide data center capex will reach $1.2 trillion cumulatively by 2029. And the acceleration is already visible in the data: Q2 2025 worldwide data center capex grew 43% year-on-year, with accelerated server spending up 76% driven by the NVIDIA Blackwell platform ramp.
AI Rack Power Density - How Compute Demands Have Changed
AI rack power density has grown 8–24x vs. traditional server racks. This drives demand for advanced cooling, high-capacity power distribution, and sophisticated thermal management - the core markets for Vertiv, Eaton, and JCI.
The Data Center Supply Chain: Where Value Is Created
Not all data center plays are created equal. The investment cycle creates value across several distinct supply chain layers, and each one carries different risk profiles, valuation dynamics, and competitive moats. Knowing which layer a company occupies - and what that means for its earnings durability - is really the first question any investor should be asking.
Hyperscalers (Demand Drivers)
- Amazon AWS
- Microsoft Azure
- Google Cloud
- Meta AI Infrastructure
The demand side. They commission data centers, lease capacity, and call the shots for the entire supply chain. Most investors already own these through broad tech indices whether they realise it or not.
Chips & Compute (Most Owned)
- Nvidia (GPUs)
- AMD (GPUs, CPUs)
- Broadcom (ASICs, networking)
- TSMC (fabrication)
The glamour names. Nvidia trades at premium valuations reflecting years of expected growth already baked into the price. Everyone and their grandmother owns these.
Power & Cooling (Rapidly Growing)
- Vertiv (VRT)
- Eaton (ETN)
- nVent Electric (NVT)
- Johnson Controls (JCI) ★
UPS systems, PDUs, liquid cooling, thermal management - the stuff every data center needs no matter which GPU generation ships next. Non-negotiable spend.
Data Center REITs (Income Layer)
- Equinix (EQIX)
- Digital Realty (DLR)
- Iron Mountain (IRM)
- Applied Digital (APLD) ★
The landlords. They build, own, and operate the physical facilities - collecting recurring lease revenue from hyperscalers and co-location tenants. Boring until you see the rent escalators.
Storage & Memory (Often Overlooked)
- Micron Technology (MU)
- Western Digital (WDC)
- Seagate (STX)
- Pure Storage (PSTG) ★
High-performance flash and memory that feeds AI training clusters. You can't de-bottleneck compute without the right storage infrastructure underneath it - and most investors haven't figured that out yet.
3 Quantitatively Strong Data Center Stocks - The Overlooked Plays
Hyperscalers, chip companies, and the big utilities have soaked up most of the capital and attention since this AI boom kicked off. Fair enough - they're obvious plays. But key upstream subsectors of the data center supply chain? Still under-appreciated. I've run these through momentum, valuation discipline, earnings revision trends, profitability quality, and analyst sentiment screens, and three companies stand out as carrying Quant Strong Buy characteristics as of October 2025. All three serve the data center ecosystem in roles that are non-discretionary, recurring, and structurally growing.
Applied Digital Corporation
Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates data center facilities engineered specifically for AI compute workloads from the ground up. That distinction matters more than it sounds. This is not a traditional co-location provider slapping some liquid cooling onto a legacy server farm and calling it AI-ready. Applied Digital's infrastructure is purpose-built for the extreme power density and cooling demands of NVIDIA Blackwell and similar high-density GPU clusters - rack densities that standard data centers flat-out cannot support without expensive, time-consuming retrofits.
The business model is straightforward: long-term, contracted revenue from hyperscalers and large AI training customers who need dedicated compute infrastructure but don't want to own it. Applied Digital acts as the capital intermediary - building the expensive physical plant, locking down power agreements, managing the facilities - while its customers focus on compute and software. It's a capital-heavy model, and there is real execution risk during construction phases. But once facilities go operational, the revenue is high-visibility and recurring. That's the trade-off.
What jumped out at me is the company's focus on sourcing power in markets with abundant, low-cost electricity - regions with available grid capacity and (increasingly important) proximity to renewable energy sources. While hyperscalers are scrambling to find sites in saturated markets like Northern Virginia and Silicon Valley, Applied Digital is quietly securing power agreements in underserved geographies. That makes them a supplier of something genuinely scarce right now: shovel-ready, high-power, AI-ready data center capacity. Revenue grew substantially year-on-year in fiscal 2025, driven by completed facility ramp-ups and expanding customer commitments.
Pure Storage
Pure Storage might be the most overlooked name in the entire AI infrastructure conversation. And the reason is almost comically simple: when investors picture an AI data center, they think GPUs and power. Storage? That's the unglamorous plumbing nobody wants to talk about at dinner parties. But the physics here are unforgiving. A GPU cluster is only as productive as the speed at which you can shovel data into it. Bottlenecked storage turns expensive compute into expensive idle compute. That's not a nuance - it is a fundamental constraint.
Pure Storage's FlashBlade and FlashArray product lines are built for the high-throughput, low-latency data access that AI training clusters demand. The all-flash architecture delivers data to GPU clusters without the input-output bottlenecks you get from traditional hard-disk-drive (HDD) storage - bottlenecks that become crippling when training runs involve petabytes of data across thousands of GPUs running concurrently. The company has said publicly that AI-related storage demand is already a meaningful revenue driver, with customers deploying Pure Storage arrays specifically to eliminate storage as the chokepoint in their AI training pipelines.
So the product story is strong. But what makes Pure Storage especially interesting on a quant basis is the financial profile underneath. Revenue growth has exceeded 25% year-on-year in recent quarters, and gross margins keep improving as the software subscription layer, Evergreen, takes a bigger share of total revenue. Evergreen subscriptions generate recurring annual contract value - revenue visibility that extends well past any single product cycle - and the subscription gross margins are substantially higher than hardware. This mix shift toward software is structurally lifting earnings quality over time, which is exactly what quantitative screens pick up through rising EPS revision trends and improving profitability scores.
Johnson Controls International
Johnson Controls is a 140-year-old industrial company whose primary business - building automation, HVAC systems, fire and security infrastructure - intersects directly with the data center boom through one critical technology: cooling. As AI rack power density has escalated from 5–15 kilowatts for traditional server racks to 50–120 kilowatts for the latest GPU cluster configurations, thermal management has emerged as a fundamental constraint on data center expansion. A data center that cannot adequately cool its compute is a data center that must throttle its GPUs - or risk hardware failure. Cooling, in this context, is not a background utility cost but a core enabling technology.
Johnson Controls supplies both traditional air-side cooling infrastructure and the advanced liquid cooling systems that AI data centers increasingly require. Liquid cooling - in which coolant is circulated directly past compute components rather than relying on air movement - is the only viable thermal management approach for the highest-density AI racks currently being deployed. JCI's portfolio spans chillers, precision air cooling, fluid dynamics systems, and the building automation software that orchestrates these systems in complex data center environments. Its OpenBlue digital platform provides the analytics and control layer that allows operators to optimise cooling efficiency, predict failures before they occur, and reduce power usage effectiveness (PUE) - a key operational metric for data center sustainability.
What makes Johnson Controls an interesting quantitative pick rather than simply a beneficiary of a long-term trend is its valuation context. Unlike Vertiv - whose stock has risen significantly and now trades at roughly 46 times forward earnings - Johnson Controls arrives at this data center growth story from a lower valuation starting point, with a large installed base of existing maintenance and upgrade contracts providing baseline revenue stability. The company's data center exposure is growing as a percentage of its overall building solutions business, creating a re-rating opportunity as the market recognises an industrial holding company increasingly operating as a critical data center infrastructure provider. Its Q3 2025 results and raised full-year guidance reflected strong order momentum tied specifically to AI-related data center construction projects.
How These Three Compare to the Broader Data Center Universe
| Company | Ticker | Segment | AI Data Center Role | Key Risk | Quant Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Applied Digital | APLD | Purpose-Built DC Operator | Builds & operates AI-ready facilities; long-term leases with hyperscalers | Construction execution; customer concentration | Strong Buy |
| Pure Storage | PSTG | Enterprise Flash Storage | High-throughput storage feeding AI GPU clusters; Evergreen subscription model | Competition from commodity flash; valuation multiple | Strong Buy |
| Johnson Controls | JCI | Building Automation / Cooling | Liquid & air cooling systems; thermal management for high-density AI racks | Non-DC business dilutes pure-play exposure; cyclicality | Strong Buy |
| Vertiv Holdings | VRT | Power & Cooling Infrastructure | UPS, PDUs, thermal management - comprehensive DC power infrastructure | Valuation: ~46x forward earnings; supply chain capacity | Neutral / Hold |
| Eaton Corporation | ETN | Electrical Power Management | 800V DC architecture with NVIDIA; busbar technology; high-density PDUs | Broad industrial exposure; slower data center re-rating vs. VRT | Buy |
| Equinix | EQIX | Colocation REIT | Global interconnection network; 10% EBITDA growth Q3 2025; strong bookings | Premium REIT valuation; limits growth multiple expansion | Neutral |
| Digital Realty | DLR | Hyperscale DC REIT | AI-oriented lease focus; $919M backlog; 300+ data centers globally | Capital-intensive; leverage rising with DC construction expansion | Buy |
The Data Center Investment Acceleration: 2024–2025 Timeline
The Stargate Announcement - $500B AI Infrastructure Commitment
President Trump announced the Stargate Project - a joint venture between SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle committing $500 billion in AI infrastructure investment over four years, with an initial $100 billion to be deployed immediately. The announcement set the tone for the scale of AI infrastructure ambition in 2025 and triggered a significant re-rating of data center-adjacent companies.
Hyperscaler CapEx Guidance Revisions Begin Exceeding Analyst Estimates
In a pattern that repeated every quarter, hyperscaler companies announced capital expenditure plans well above analyst forecasts. Total 2025 AI infrastructure spend estimates were repeatedly revised upward - from $250B at year-start to $365B entering Q3, ultimately tracking above $405B. Dell'Oro Group reported 43% global data center capex growth in Q2, with accelerated server spending up 76% driven by the NVIDIA Blackwell platform ramp-up.
Power and Cooling Constraints Become a Market Narrative
As the NVIDIA Blackwell GB200 NVL72 rack - drawing approximately 120 kilowatts - began shipping at scale, the data center industry's power and cooling challenge moved from a theoretical concern to a practical constraint on how quickly hyperscalers could deploy AI compute. Goldman Sachs published research projecting data center power demand would grow 175% between 2023 and 2030, equivalent to adding an entire large country's electricity consumption to global grids. This narrative directly benefited Vertiv, Eaton, Johnson Controls, and cooling specialists.
Data Center Investment Exceeds Traditional Office Buildings
For the first time in history, annual investment in data center construction is projected to exceed investment in traditional office buildings in the United States - a structural shift in how capital is being allocated to the built environment. This milestone, combined with 25.6% annual growth projected through 2034, underscores the durability of the data center investment cycle as an investment theme, not a short-term trade.
What to Watch: Risk Factors and Investment Framework
The data center investment thesis is structurally compelling, but it is not without risk. The primary concern that has periodically rattled this sector - exemplified by the January 2025 DeepSeek-driven sell-off that wiped approximately $1 trillion from global equity markets in a single session - is that more efficient AI models could reduce the compute intensity required to deliver equivalent AI output, thereby reducing demand for AI hardware and, by extension, the infrastructure that houses it. This risk is real but overstated as a structural threat: even if individual AI models require less compute per inference, the breadth and scale of AI application deployment is expanding rapidly enough that aggregate data center demand continues to grow even with improved efficiency.
Investor Framework: How to Evaluate Data Center Infrastructure Companies
- Recurring vs. transactional revenue: Companies with subscription, maintenance, or long-term lease revenue (Pure Storage's Evergreen subscriptions, Applied Digital's contracted facility leases, JCI's service contracts) offer superior earnings visibility compared to companies dependent on one-time equipment sales cycles
- Power access as a competitive moat: In 2025, the binding constraint on data center expansion is not capital or GPUs - it is access to power. Companies that have secured long-term power agreements or have established relationships with utilities in power-surplus markets are structurally advantaged. Applied Digital's strategic focus on this moat is its most durable competitive advantage
- Valuation relative to growth: Vertiv's well-deserved premium (~46x forward earnings) leaves less room for upside surprise. Applied Digital, Pure Storage, and Johnson Controls offer quantitatively better risk-reward profiles at their respective valuations relative to their data center growth exposure, which is why they score higher on quantitative factor frameworks
- The cooling and power delivery bottleneck: Every GPU must be cooled and powered. This demand is non-discretionary and scales directly with the number of GPUs deployed - making power infrastructure and thermal management companies structurally benefiting from the entire AI compute buildout rather than from any single technology or product cycle
- Debt financing risk at the hyperscaler level: Meta and Oracle issued $75 billion in bonds and loans in September–October 2025 alone to fund AI data center construction. The scale of AI infrastructure debt financing is significant and introduces macro credit risk - if credit conditions tighten materially, capex plans could be revised downward faster than current consensus expects
- Geographic diversification of data center construction: Data center construction is increasingly spreading beyond traditional hubs (Northern Virginia, Silicon Valley, Dublin) toward Sunbelt states, Midwest locations, and international sovereign AI projects - this broadens the addressable market for US-based data center infrastructure companies
Key Takeaways
- Hyperscalers are tracking above $405 billion in AI infrastructure capital expenditure in 2025 - up 62% year-on-year and nearly triple 2023 levels - with Amazon alone guiding to $125 billion for the full year
- Data center investment is projected to exceed traditional office building investment in the US in 2025 for the first time, with 25.6% annual growth forecast through 2034 and global data center capex projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2029
- While chip stocks and utilities have absorbed the bulk of investor attention, key upstream data center subsectors - purpose-built facility operators, enterprise flash storage, and building automation / cooling infrastructure - remain quantitatively attractive and under-represented in most AI investment portfolios
- Applied Digital (APLD) is a purpose-built AI data center operator whose competitive moat is access to power in underserved geographies and facilities purpose-engineered for extreme GPU rack density - qualities that cannot be quickly replicated by traditional colocation providers or hyperscalers building their own capacity
- Pure Storage (PSTG) addresses the frequently overlooked storage bottleneck in AI training: GPU clusters are only as productive as the speed at which data can be fed into them, and Pure Storage's FlashBlade arrays are specifically designed to eliminate storage as the constraint in large-scale AI training runs
- Johnson Controls (JCI) brings 140 years of building infrastructure expertise to the data center cooling crisis - a crisis created by AI rack power density escalating from 5–15 kW (traditional) to 50–120 kW (Blackwell-era AI) - and arrives at this growth story at a more attractive valuation than pure-play cooling peers like Vertiv
- Goldman Sachs projects global data center power demand will grow 175% between 2023 and 2030 - the equivalent of adding a top-10 power-consuming nation to global electricity grids - making power delivery and thermal management non-discretionary growth markets for the remainder of this decade
- The primary risk to the data center thesis is AI model efficiency improvement (exemplified by DeepSeek's January 2025 shock) reducing per-model compute requirements - however, expanding AI application breadth has historically absorbed these efficiency gains rather than reducing aggregate demand
- Recurring revenue models (subscriptions, maintenance contracts, long-term leases) are the key differentiator between high-quality and lower-quality data center infrastructure investments - companies with contracted, recurring revenue streams offer superior earnings visibility during capex cycle inflections
- The data center infrastructure buildout is structurally recurring, not a one-time boom: each new AI architecture generation (Blackwell, then the inevitable successor) requires re-architecting power, cooling, networking, and memory bandwidth - making infrastructure investment a durable multi-year theme rather than a trade timed to a single chip cycle
Sources: Dell'Oro Group Data Center IT Capex Quarterly Report (Q2 2025); Goldman Sachs Research - "Data Center Power Demand: The 6 Ps Driving Growth" (October 2025); CreditSights Technology Hyperscaler CapEx Analysis (2025); Company earnings guidance - Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta (Q3 2025).
Bellwether Research, Research Team, October 22, 2025